| # | Team | Odds | Implied % | Probability | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
France
Kylian Mbappé
|
+500 | 17.4% | Group I | |
| 2 |
Spain
Lamine Yamal
|
+500 | 16.6% | Group H | |
| 3 |
England
Jude Bellingham
|
+650 | 11.3% | Group L | |
| 4 |
Brazil
Vinicius Jr.
|
+800 | 9.1% | Group C | |
| 5 |
Argentina
Lionel Messi
|
+850 | 8.5% | Group J | |
| 6 |
Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo
|
+1100 | 6.2% | Group K | |
| 7 |
Germany
Florian Wirtz
|
+1400 | 4.8% | Group E | |
| 8 |
Netherlands
Xavi Simons
|
+2000 | 3.3% | Group F | |
| 9 |
Norway
Erling Haaland
|
+3000 | 2.1% | Group I | |
| 10 |
Belgium
Jérémy Doku
|
+3500 | 1.8% | Group G | |
| 11 |
Colombia
Luis Díaz
|
+4000 | 1.5% | Group D | |
| 12 |
Morocco
Achraf Hakimi
|
+5000 | 1.2% | Group B | |
| 13 |
Japan
Takefusa Kubo
|
+5000 | 1.2% | Group F | |
| 14 |
USA
Christian Pulisic
|
+5000 | 1.1% | Group A |
France & Spain: The Twin Favorites Explained
Both France (+500) and Spain (+500) enter the tournament as co-favorites, and for good reason. France, the world's top-ranked team according to FIFA, has Kylian Mbappé in the prime of his career and a squad depth that arguably surpasses any other nation. Spain, meanwhile, boasts the youngest and most exciting attacker on the planet in Lamine Yamal, and a midfield built around Rodri and Pedri that controls games like no other.
The key storyline: both teams are in different groups but could meet in the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19. Sportsbooks are losing sleep over a potential France-Spain final — it would be a nightmare for liabilities.
England at +650 — Third Favorite with a Soft Draw
England (+650) drew Group L, arguably the most favorable path in the tournament. With Croatia, Ghana and Panama as group opponents, the Three Lions are expected to cruise into the knockouts. Jude Bellingham is the central figure, and the tournament's early-round knockout stages might be where England finally break their long trophy drought.
Bettors are piling in on England more than any other team at several sportsbooks, making them a significant liability. The +650 price represents exceptional value if you believe in the squad.
Argentina (+850) — Can the Defending Champions Go Back-to-Back?
No team has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. But Argentina (+850) have Lionel Messi, who has declared this will be his final World Cup, and a defense built around Emiliano Martínez — arguably the best goalkeeper in the world. Argentina drew Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan — the softest possible path through the group stage.
The emotional narrative around Messi's farewell could prove to be Argentina's secret weapon. They've done it before. Don't sleep on them.
Brazil (+800) — The Eternal Dark Horse
Brazil (+800) enter with Vinicius Jr. as the focal point of attack and a hunger to end a trophy drought that now stretches back to 2002. In Group C, they have manageable opposition and should reach the knockouts without drama. The question is whether they can go deep in the elimination rounds, where they've historically struggled.
Dark Horses Worth Watching
Norway (+3000) — The Haaland Factor
Erling Haaland has never played in a World Cup. That changes in 2026, and the world's most feared striker will have something to prove on the biggest stage. Norway drew Group I — alongside France, which is brutal — but if they escape the group, they have the firepower to beat anyone. At +3000, this is among the most intriguing value bets in the tournament.
Portugal (+1100) — One Last Rodeo for Ronaldo?
Portugal at +1100 is generating huge betting interest and is currently BetMGM's third-largest liability. Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41, may or may not be on the squad — but the rest of the Portuguese generation is exceptional. Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leão and João Félix give them genuine quality across every line.
Morocco (+5000) — The African Giant
After reaching the semi-finals at Qatar 2022, Morocco carry legitimate momentum and a passionate fanbase. Achraf Hakimi at right-back is one of the most dynamic players in world football. At +5000, the Atlas Lions represent the longest-odds team with a realistic path to a deep run.
How to Read American Odds
If you're new to sports betting, American odds (the + format) work like this: the number after the + sign tells you how much you'd win on a $100 bet.
- France +500 → bet $100, win $500 profit ($600 total) if France wins
- Argentina +850 → bet $100, win $850 profit if Argentina wins
- Norway +3000 → bet $100, win $3,000 profit — high risk, high reward
The lower the + number, the more likely the sportsbook considers that outcome. France at +500 is seen as far more likely than Norway at +3000.